Map Many Scenarios, Choose a Few

 26th June 2018 by gihan

Map Many Scenarios, Choose a Few

A few months ago, I had my first dangerous close encounter with a kangaroo when driving on a country road. We were enjoying a quiet weekend away in Yallingup, in the beautiful South-West region of Australia, driving on a road near the beach, when a roo jumped out from bushes in front of us. Fortunately, it hopped across the road quickly, and we avoided an accident. But it was close, and I realised there was nothing we could have done if we had been crossing its path a few seconds earlier.

As a result of this close call, for the next couple of hours, I was very cautious when driving, examining every bush on the side of the road as if it might have a kangaroo lurking behind it. In fact, I became overly cautious, until I realised it was crazy to have that attitude forever. Yes, we need to be alert for roos, but we can’t drive forever with one foot hovering over the brake pedal.

The same applies to the way you view the future.

Future-ready leaders know which scenarios demand their greatest attention.

Whether you’re leading a team, department, or business, you know you’ll be navigating your way through unknown scenarios in the future. But not all those scenarios are equally likely, and not all will affect you in the short term.

When you evaluate these scenarios, you can classify them into four groups:

Then you can deal with them differently, depending on where they fit.

Long-term and unlikely: Ignore for now.

Some things are speculative, and even if they happened, won’t affect you in the short term. So it’s usually safe to ignore them for now.

For example, as much as we might get excited about Elon Musk planning to build a million-person colony on Mars, there are many obstacles to overcome, and it’s estimated to take 40-100 years. So most of us don’t have to take that into account in our business decisions.

Short-term and unlikely: Keep on radar.

Some other things seem unlikely right now, but will have an immediate impact if they happen. It’s risky to ignore them, but we can just keep them on the radar and stay alert in case they suddenly appear on the horizon.

Blockchain technology falls into this category. At this stage, there’s a lot of hype about it, with very little substance supporting the hype – mainly because there are some complex technical issues holding it back. But if the technical geeks resolve these issues fast, blockchain has the potential to affect almost every industry. So it’s worth keeping an eye on it – even if it doesn’t inform your strategy yet.

Long-term but certain: Inform strategy.

On the other hand, some scenarios are inevitable, but might not happen for a while. As a leader, these fall under your responsibility, and they should inform your strategic direction, even if you don’t make immediate plans for them.

For example, autonomous vehicles (self-driving cars) will replace drivers, just as surely and completely as cars replaced the horse and buggy. But there are still many hurdles to overcome – mainly because driving is so ingrained in society. So, it will be years before fully autonomous vehicles become mainstream, but, as a leader, you should definitely incorporate them into your strategic thinking now.

Immediate and certain: Act now!

Finally, you will face some scenarios that are both highly likely (if not already happening) and with short-term impact. Obviously, you need to plan for them and act immediately.

Whatever your industry, I’m sure you can find many examples – new regulations, actions from competitors, new technology, global competition, and more. In fact, these are usually the easiest scenarios to identify.

Which scenarios are YOU planning for?

If you have never done this kind of scenario planning before, I highly recommend it – especially now in Australia, as we’re starting a new financial year, and you might be setting your direction for the next 12 months. I also recommend you involve your team members, because they bring different perspectives to the conversation.

When I work with leaders and their teams to help them with their decision-making, I work through this exercise with them. In my experience, I see three common traps and mistakes:

  1. Not going wide enough: This is just an exercise, so let your imagination run wild, and don’t self-censor too soon. Even if a scenario seems unlikely or too far away, include it in the discussion. That doesn’t mean you need to tackle it immediately, but at least consider it – and then later decide where it fits in your scenario planning.
  2. Too much focus on unlikely scenarios: That said, don’t get side-tracked by hype, wishful thinking, and Bright Shiny Objects. By all means, identify them, but make a realistic assessment about their impact.
  3. Too many short-term actions: It’s easy to identify immediate and likely scenarios (the top-right corner of the model above), and it’s easiest to create plans for these scenarios. The danger is that you only spend your time in this area! You will be highly focussed, but also very narrow-minded in your thinking – and that’s bad for a leader.

Do this scenario planning exercise now! It’s not just useful – it’s part of your responsibility as a leader.

If you would like my help, please get in touch. I use this exercise – and many others – in my Think Sharper masterclass and leadership mentoring to assist you to keep thinking ahead.

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Go Lean! Try Jugaad Innovation

 19th June 2018 by gihan

Facebook has recently been reminding me that, five years ago, I went on a holiday to Sri Lanka with my parents and my sister.

Among the many enjoyable moments was spending time with two of my aunts, who I hadn’t seen for more than 30 years. Not only did we get to enjoy a very tasty Sri Lankan meal, I also had the unexpected opportunity to become an amateur “electrician”.

Their electric fan wasn’t working, because the plug didn’t fit snugly into the adapter plug, which was plugged into the power board, which in turn was plugged into the wall socket. With a bit of experimentation (and enough care and luck not to electrocute myself), I discovered I could make it work by wedging a small piece of cardboard in there, and that tilted the plug just enough for contact!

Of course, I wouldn’t have dreamed of doing such a thing back home in Australia! We have Woolies, electricians, and other – more sophisticated – options to fix this kind of problem. But those options weren’t available at the time, and a piece of cardboard was the perfect solution.

This is an example of Jugaad innovation.

“Jugaad” is a Hindi word that (roughly) means solving a problem in an ingenious way when you have limited resources. I’m sure you have seen plenty of photographs of this from around the world – such as this ute constructed from random spare parts:

Many people – especially in developed nations – used to laugh or look down on this kind of problem solving. But there’s a growing trend of applying the concepts of Jugaad innovation in well-resourced, established organisations. Authors Navi Radjou, Jaideep Prabhu, and Simone Ahuja talk about this in depth in their 2012 book, “Jugaad Innovation: Think Frugal, Be Flexible, Generate Breakthrough Growth”.

The big idea is that you can trigger better ideas when you have fewer – not more – resources.

In fact, this is exactly how smart start-up companies disrupt the big, well-established incumbents. The start-ups don’t have huge cash reserves, a large staff, and many other assets that sometimes reduce the need for innovation. They have to be lean, so they are forced to be more creative in solving problems big and small.

If you want to be more innovative, try removing some resources!

If you want more innovation in your organisation, the obvious option is to throw more resources – time, money, people, etc. – at it. But that might not necessarily be the best option. What if you removed some of those resources instead?

What if you had to create a working prototype for under $100?
What if you set aside just one hour each week to fix 10 small problems?
What if your team had to solve a problem but without using any in-house resources?

Of course, you need to strike the right balance.

Removing too many resources can also stifle innovation. But don’t automatically assume that fewer resources means less innovation.

It’s like runners in a race. If they are fat, they carry too much body weight; and if they are skinny, they don’t have enough energy. The best runners are lean, not skinny or fat!

So, if you want to spark innovation in your team, try removing some of their resources!

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 13th June 2018 by gihan

When people are uncertain about the future and can’t rely on what has worked for them in the past, decision-making suffers and productivity declines. Instead of making progress, people just try to protect their turf, pass the buck, and resist change. If that’s happening to you and your team (or you want to make sure it doesn’t happen!), learn the skills of better decision-making in an uncertain future.

You can watch the recording here:

After the webinar, I asked participants “What was the most useful thing you learned today?” Here are some of their answers:

“How to structure options to think about the future.”

“Way of categorising future threats”

“Your best asset can be a liability too”

“Dont discount the value of Analytics and Big Data – even if I dont think it will apply to my organisation”

“The 9 technology trends of immediate impact and how to relate these to my business assets”

“Majority of competition is likely to come from outside usual competitors and need to think about business opportunities from their perspective. “

The Future Proof Webinar Series

The Future Proof webinar series will keep you in touch with our future – what’s ahead, what it means for us, and how to stay ahead of the game.

In each webinar, I’ll cover an important topic about the future – for example, the shift of power to Asia, the changing workplace, healthcare technology, the shift to customer-centric business, big data, and more. This is not just theory; I’ll also give you practical examples and ideas for you to future-proof your organisation, teams, and career.

Register here

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Think Ahead by Connecting Outside Technology

 7th June 2018 by gihan

The biggest changes to your job and business will come from outside your industry. In their Accenture Technology Vision 2016 report, Accenture says almost half of Australian executives expect the greatest risk of disruption from this kind of competition.

It’s all well and good to compare yourself with yourself, so you can keep improving. And it’s sometimes even worth looking around at the competition, so you can strive to be (or continue to be) the market leader. But that won’t protect you from people outside your industry stealing a march on you and the rest of your industry.

You can’t always predict this, of course. But you can be more aware of it by training yourself to consider the impact of new technology and trends.

For example, self-driving cars will affect a lot of industries:

  • Obviously, car manufacturing and car sales will change, because many people won’t have to buy their own cars.
  • We won’t need car insurance, because we won’t be responsible for car accidents.
  • The multi-billion-dollar parking industry will be affected, because cars won’t be sitting in garages and parking spaces all day.
  • Accommodation, travel and hospitality will be affected, because people can drive to destinations overnight (sleeping in their car) rather than taking flights and staying in hotels.
  • Cemeteries, morgues, and funeral directors will be affected, because there will be fewer deaths from car accidents.
  • Education will be affected, because cars might become mobile classrooms rather than just transport vehicles.

Notice that some of these connections (such as car sales, insurance and parking) are more obvious than others, because they are directly related to cars. But some of the others are not so obvious, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t important! If you’re in one of those less-obvious industries, you’ll have an advantage by thinking ahead and assessing the impact of this technology.

Exercise: Be a Connector

Every time you hear about some new technology or trend, rather than just dismissing it because It’s not directly related to your industry, ask:

“How could this affect me?”
“How could this affect my business?”
“How could this affect my industry?”

Consider both the positives and negatives – that is, the opportunities and the threats.

Do this regularly and proactively, and you will spot new opportunities and keep finding ways to add value to yourself and your business.

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Think Like a Futurist

 5th June 2018 by gihan


Futurists aren’t fortune-tellers! They simply look broader, deeper, and further than most people, and help you find new opportunities to apply what they find. As writer William Gibson said, the future is already here – it just isn’t evenly distributed. In this podcast episode, I’ll teach you nine practical skills you can use yourself to think like a futurist, so you can make better decisions – and faster.

Listen To the Episode

More Resources

The Fit for the Future Podcast brings you regular ideas, interviews and insights about how you, your teams and your organisation can become fit for the future.

More ways to engage with me:

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The Future of Conferences: Ten Things Great Conference Organisers Do Differently

 31st May 2018 by gihan

Videoconferencing, online meetings, telepresence and other collaboration technology are gaining traction. That doesn’t mean the in-person conference is obsolete – but its role has changed. Some of the benefits of coming together for a conference can be achieved just as effectively in other ways.

As a conference keynote speaker (and somebody who has been in the industry for over 20 years), I have seen major changes in the way conferences and events work. Especially in the last few years, because of technology, changing demographics, and global connectivity.

If you’re in the MICE industry – as a speaker, conference organiser, speaking bureau, association, event sponsor, or anybody else who’s involved in events – download my new special report “The Future of Conferences”.

In this special report, I look at ten trends affecting professional conferences and events, and how conference organisers take advantage of them. Good conference organisers adapt to these changes. Great conference organisers embrace them to create transformational experiences.

I wrote the first edition of this report in 2015, and I’ve now rewritten it completely to bring it up to date for 2018. This is not just a minor revision – I’ve completely rewritten it!

The first edition is only three years old, but that’s an eternity now in this fast-paced world.

In that time, we have seen rapid growth in technology such as artificial intelligence, virtual reality, augmented reality, online collaboration tools, personalisation and customisation, social media, and much, much more. It goes without saying that much of this technology affects the Meetings Incentives Conventions & Exhibitions (MICE) industry, but not always in the most obvious ways, and not always to the same extent. This revised edition reports on the latest trends and their impact, especially in the Australian market.

As with the first edition, I wanted to make this more than just a “white paper”, but also a source of practical ideas for great conference organisers. So, as before, I have included practical ideas for you to created more compelling event experiences. In fact, I have gone much further than the previous edition, including more in-depth ideas and more references to external sources.

For example …

We look at the three different types of people in your audience – based on their age and demographic profile:

Not surprisingly, each group wants different things, and there are so many ways now to deliver. For example, we look at audience interaction tools like a live word cloud:

Or what about an online bulletin board for audience members to share their biggest takeaways from a panel discussion?

Yep, there’s a lot of tech – but it’s not all equally useful!

Meetings industry peeps in Australia were asked which technology would be important in future conferences and events, and their answers might surprise you. These were their top five:

Some others that have gained a lot of media hype didn’t make the cut, including holograms, heat maps of foot traffic, artificial intelligence and robotics, and facial recognition software.

But it’s not just about technology.

It’s easy to focus on technology alone because there’s always a new Bright Shiny Object to capture our attention! But events are changing in other ways as well – as meeting professionals predict about the nature of sessions:

That’s just a small sample.

Anyway, that’s just a small sample of the research and resources you’ll find in the 2018 edition of “The Future of Conferences”.

So go ahead – please download it!

Download Now

And, of course, you have my permission to share it far and wide with colleagues and friends in the MICE industry. The more we all learn about how to be fit for the future, the more useful and compelling we can make our events.

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Artificial Intelligence Works Best When Combined With Our Own

 29th May 2018 by gihan

There is a lot of discussion about the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in our future. But it’s still early days for AI, and the best uses of AI happen when we combine it with our own human genius. We need strong leaders who push for change and strong work cultures that embrace it.

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Engage in Lifelong Learning with Online Courses

 24th May 2018 by gihan

In our fast-changing world, you can’t afford to stop learning when you finish formal education. If you truly want to be fit for the future, making lifelong learning a habit – and tap into the awesome power of online courses to keep feeding that habit.

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